Friday and Saturday, December 6-7, 1996
Common Room, University House,
and J G Crawford Building, National Centre for Development Studies,
Australian National University
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Seminar on Environment and Development in Vietnam
Friday and Saturday, December 6-7, 1996 Common Room, University House,
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Change Challenges for Environment and Development in Vietnam
by Dr. Louis Lebel
Global Change & Terrestrial Ecosystems CPO
CSIRO Division of Wildlife & Ecology
PO Box 84
Lyneham ACT 2612 Australia
Tel: +61 (6) 242-1619
Fax: +61 (6) 241-2362
Email: Louis.Lebel@dwe.csiro.au
The impacts of global change are a mixture of hazards and opportunities. Environmental and health scientists have tended to emphasise the hazards. This is because the potential threats to food security and human health are potentially very serious, but rarely acknowledged. The irreplaceable loss of much of the biodiversity in the region has much less tangible and immediate consequences, but in the long-run might be the most important. The impacts, however, are not all negative. Many recent advances in standards of living, health and economic wealth have been facilitated by development and conversion of the land surface. Moreover, planning for future environmental conditions may to some extent reduce the negative impacts of global changes or even lead to new opportunities. For example, agro-forestry to recover degraded upland areas may lead to improved soil conditions and greater economic security for some communities, while at the same time increasing the robustness of the system to changes in climate variability.
Plantation development in the vast areas of degraded land in Vietnam is a high priority and plans should take into account global change. This presentation will conclude with an outline of a proposal for a collaborative study to aid long-term reforestation efforts in Vietnam.
The global environment is changing rapidly in profound ways. Land use and cover are changing on a massive scale. Atmospheric composition has been changing since industrial times due to the burning of fossil fuels and land use changes. These in turn are producing changes in the climate system which in the longer term could have important consequences on rainfall and temperature patterns in the region.
Some of these are called global because they refer to changes in large systems such as the Earth's climate system. Other changes are called global because they are manifested locally over such a large part of the Earth's surface, for example, land use and cover change.
Global changes are also apparent in social and economic systems, for example, the development of mass communications, markets and political structures.
Figure 1. Components of Global Change (after Vitousek 1994). The main components of global change interact and have secondary consequences. The human driving forces behind each component, for example, human population growth, agricultural and industrial development are multiple and complex.
Warfare and deforestation associated with post-war development 1975 have left the nation with only about 10% cover of closed tropical forests with less than 1% in pristine state (Collins et al. 1995).
Land transformation has been a basis of rapid economic growth and development in the past, but because there is almost no suitable land left, other strategies will be needed in the future.
Vast areas of the country which might be classified "forests" are actually bare or severely degraded a fact recognised by the Vietnamese government. Current reforestation policy goal is to establish 11 million hectares of production forests by the year 2000. This will require the establishment of new plantations at a rate of 150-200 000 ha per year.
Is this feasible?
Even though I have included population at the top of figure 1, this was not meant to imply that population growth is some kind of root cause of all other changes. Population growth itself is a result of inequities in access to education, income and power. Vietnam is one of the most densely populated countries in the world with more than 200 per /km2 and even higher densities in the agriculturally rich Mekong and Red River deltas. Annual rates of population growth remain over 2% (Concepcion 1993) and current trends suggest that stabilisation will not be achieved until the middle of the next century when the population could be as high as 170 million. The current population is about 65 million. The difficulties in supporting such a large population underlines the importance of a sound population policy for the future of the environment and development in Vietnam.
The challenges for Vietnam as we look out towards the end of the next century are multiple. I would highlight five. Each involves the interaction between local and global change processes.
1. Maintaining food security in the face of growing population, and degradation of agricultural lands and the productive coastal zone.
2. Maintaining or improving population health in the face of rapid urbanisation, growing disparity between the rich and poor, and the changes in the incidence and distribution of tropical diseases with changing environments.
3. Maintaining options for agriculture and sustainable harvesting of timber and non-timber products in the face of declining natural forests and biodiversity.
4. Maintaining competitive local industries and trade in light of the declining resource base, larger populations, a degraded environment, and export-oriented growth policies in a global economy.
5. Developing and maintaining social, welfare and institutional structures which will support the transition to more market oriented economy and way of life.
As demands increase due to population growth and changes in lifestyles, production ecosystems will be come more vulnerable to disruption by pests and climatic variation.
How will economic liberalism affect long-term vulnerability to global change? (Point 5) Analyses of these type of questions are needed now to help guide Vietnam's future down it's own path (Trac & Ninh 1996). It is not inevitable that Vietnam must repeat all the errors of it's neighbours as it negotiates it's way through economic transitions.
Concerns about development plans for the Mekong River Basin are of great interest to Vietnam, given that Ho Chi Minh and the prime agricultural regions of the south are in the delta.
Previous studies by the Asian Development Bank and the United Nations Environment Program on the possible impacts of climate change have highlighted the importance and vulnerability of the Red River and Mekong Delta (Trac & Ninh 1996).
Sea-level rises could resulting in storm surges and saline intrusions could be compounded by flooding, in addition to effects of temperature and atmosphere on crop growth. Saline water intrusions in the dry season are already extensive and further development of upstream irrigation could exacerbate these problems. Extensive engineering solutions are being contemplated, but these themselves are likely to have adverse impacts on water quality due to the acidity of some of the coastal soils.
In the past, warfare, and more recently, land development, have had a major impact on coastal mangrove forests. What the consequences of these and further changes will be for fisheries and the maritime economy needs to be analysed in the context of changing impacts from upland development.
Some studies suggest that under climate change there is a possibility of increased climate variability, and hence, extreme events. Floods and droughts under current climate variability already cause much human suffering and death. Increases in the frequency of these events would, if they occur, be of great consequence. Other scientists are worried about the possibility of unpleasant surprises arising from the speed and multiplicity of global change. What if these were to produce major shifts in the climate system, for example, to the monsoon or El Nino oscillation? The potential joint impacts of ENSO events and mean global warming on Vietnam are still not well understood (Trac and Ninh 1996).
Today, it is still not possible to say with any certain how the climate of Vietnam will change. The analysis tell us only that the potential for serious impacts is there. How should these risks be managed? What is the appropriate policy response now.
In many ways the impacts of global change on Vietnam will depend a lot on how it manages trade. Vietnam is only just becoming part of the ASEAN family. Will ASEAN grow to be a dominating influence in the region? If so, will Vietnam be ready to protect it's interests? Recent commentators argue that Vietnam will not have had enough time to develop it's industries to take advantage of ASEAN membership, and may in fact lose out in some areas, against more advanced market economies in the region (Buffet 1996; McGovern 1996).
Relationships with the major financial institutions like the World Bank will be critical. Vietnam already has a huge debt and it is hard to see how it will ever be repaid (Buffet 1996). The future attitude of creditors to the debt will be critical to Vietnam's future.
A general strategy for dealing with the problems of living with global change is too keep things diverse: maintain and if possible increase your future options. Another is to make sure products are priced to reflect their true environmental costs.
At a technical level the challenge for agricultural scientists and landscape planners to devise highly productive systems which are at the same time robust to environmental changes. (Steffen & Walker, in Prep.) This will also need to be developed so that they are socially acceptable and economically feasible.
Irrigation is a strategy that helps cope with current variability in climate and may in turn assist adaptation future changes in water resources. Irrigated land has increased sharply in Vietnam since 1973 (cited in Trac & Ninh 1996). Although there may be a number of positive impacts of irrigation, there are often other hidden on-site and off-site costs. Irrigation channels can assist the spread of crop pests (eg. rats) and of course may have consequences for land uses further downstream and, finally, coastal zones. The sensitivity of different irrigation strategies at the landscape scale to climate variability and up and downstream land use changes needs to be studied.
One major concern is EQUITY. The rapid growth of economy could widen the disparity between the haves and the have-nots. Between rural and urban. Between north, central and south. Between women and men. Between minority ethnic groups and the dominant groups. Global change is also an issue about inter-generational EQUITY: what we use now and the immediate environmental costs verus what we leave behind for our children. There are spatial, cultural and temporal aspects to EQUITY which integrated studies of the impact of global change and sustainable development need to address. Awareness and putting these issues on the agenda is a first step.
For Vietnam, an appropriate response is one which includes in its focus rural development. This, including access to family planning, poverty alleviation, incentives to rehabilitate land, and access and protection from the new markets being created by the export emphasis of current development.
· relieve pressure on natural forests for fuelwood collection
· meet local timber demands for construction and paper
· soil protection and improvement
· generate foreign earnings through timber and value-added exports
· watershed protection
When thinking about, for example, the development of plantation lands in Vietnam, this would mean things like:
1. maintaining a good local and regional mix of species (including native and exotic species),
2. preservation of existing natural biodiversity, as a potential source of future plantation species;
3. flexible mix of short, medium and longer term rotation
4. consider the longer-term vulnerability of potential sites to urban and rural encroachment, off-site impacts from floods and erosion, and the impacts of climate change and variability;
5. What are the likely needs for different types of timber products both nationally and in the region, 10, 20 and 50 years from now?
Plantation development alone is not a solution. It should be seen as part of an integrated plan for land development. Existing natural forests in protect areas and state forest areas should be protected to conserve biodiversity and maintain future options for timber and non-timber resources. Policies, must be therefore, careful not to create situations where it is advantageous to farmers to clear currently forested land in order to develop cash crop plantations like coffee and rubber (Buffet 1996). Other areas of degraded land may be best managed for natural regeneration, for a variety of ecological and economic reasons (eg. distance to markets). This would imply regulating fuel wood collection and grazing so that regeneration can proceed properly.
To assist the planning process, integrated assessments are needed on the impacts of various development options especially in the Red River and Mekong Deltas (Trac and Ninh 1996). These need to consider the economic costs and benefits, as well as unaccountable goods and service provided by alternative landscapes.
How robust are current government policies effecting land use and plantation development?
There have been a whole series of decisions by Council of Ministers affecting logging, land tenure, and rehabilitation (eg. Nhuan 1992, Kiet 1992, Kai 1992, 1994). One of the most important is the 1994 Decree (No. 02/CP) which permits allocation of forest land for 20 to 50 year periods for forestry uses (Kai 1994).
Other development policies may conflict with or negate some of these initiatives. In this spirit an analysis is needed of questions like:
· In what way's are policies a hindrance to investment both locally and nationally in land rehabilitation, especially, through mixed plantation forests?
· What form of incentives would encourage plantation development?
· What information do potential investors wan't about plantations in Vietnam?
At the outset it must be recognised that successful land rehabilitation is not just a matter of having the right policy; it needs to be supported by the right instruments or it will not be effective. One can anticipate, that a key precursor will be human resource development.
I would like to end my talk today by considering a specific example of a type of study that, in a small way, could help Vietnam meet some of the challenges. I have taken as a focus plantation development, in particular, for long-rotation species, because this requires a longer planning horizon than most other things considered by policy makers and resource managers.
Figure 2. Conceptual Framework for a study on land use planning for plantation development.
The idea is to in a first pass a country wide analysis of the capability of the landscape for plantation development. This would build on previous work on the climatic requirements of various native and exotic species and combine this with information on soil distributions and their suitabilities for growth by different species. Sensitivity analyses would be an important part of the study. These would be used to examine the sensitivity of the derived maps to changes in climate, land use, and economic assumptions. This sensitivity analysis would feed into the feasibility studies.
In judging feasibility consideration must also be given to land development plans and how these would affect the future distribution of forested lands. For example, there is no point in planting long-rotation forests in areas destined to be soon engulfed by expanding urban populations or submerged in a hydroelectric scheme. On a positive note, development of transport and infrastructure in new regional centres, may turn create new areas which will be economically viable to harvest when the trees mature 10, 20 or 50 years from now. The final, and critical part of the study, would be a set of feasability studies on the economic viability and investment potential of different regions, plantation types in selected, contrasting areas. This analysis would include consultation and analysis of policy.
Preparation of interpolated climate maps and matching these to species climate requirements has already been done for for a number of exotic and native species as part of an ACIAR funded projected with CSIRO Forestry (Booth 1996, Nghia 1996). This study would hope to build on this through a series of project using GIS and simulation modelling tools.
The ideas for this study were refined at a workshop held at the Southeast Asian Impacts Centre in Bogor, Indonesia. Since then my two Vietnamese colleagues from Ha Noi, Dr. Nghia from the Forest Science Institute of Vietnam, and Dr. Ninh from the Centre for Environmental Research, Education, and Development, have been active in trying to refine ideas for the project.
A recent benchmarking study of plantation developments in Australia included analysis of competitors in the Southeast Asian region, including Vietnam (Australian Trade Commission 1995). In the report, Vietnam was ranked among the most attractive countries on a number of characteristics:
· proximity to Asian markets
· low sawlog costs
· very low bare land costs
· low establishment and maintenance costs
However, on some features Vietnam was among the least attractive:
· business/manufacturing attractiveness
· timber growth rates
They are thus still a number of important impediments to investment in plantation development.
One problem is that Vietnamese officials and community groups are not adept at dealing with potential foreign investors. In the long-term the success of plantation development strategies will require improving negotiating and related skills, for example, in the preparation of feasibility studies. Training in these and related areas of business management are urgently needed, a point emphasised by a number of recent commentators (McGovern 1996; Gow 1996).
CSIRO Forestry has been involved extensively in research for reforestation in Vietnam. Key studies include work on coastal plantation development and other general work on site-climate matching. Within Vietnam a number of institutions in Vietnam would be critical for this study including, the Forest Inventory and Planning Institute (FIPI), Forest Science Institute of Vietnam (FSIV). The missing link is finding appropriate Australian and Vietnamese private or state-run organisations who are really interested in investing in plantation development. This means developing a clear understanding the requirements of investors and balancing these against the benefits and costs to local communities likely to be most impacted by such programs.
Improving the productivity of plantations in Vietnam will require efforts on a number of fronts aside from land suitability studies. Productivity of current plantations is very low 10-12 m3/ha/yr. Applied research on improving management of existing and future plantations is urgently needed. This would undoubtedly have a large impact on the investment attractiveness for small scale community initiatives and larger scale planation development..
Everyone is probably thinking: "Sure, but whose going to pay?" Obviously the ideas presented here are just preliminary and must be made more concrete before an approach to agencies for funding should be considered. One avenue that I find attractive is through the AUSAID linkages program which emphasises projects which will lead to trade and investment links between Australian and ASEAN countries.
A key requirement for applications under this program are finding collateral support of at least 40% from other sources. Are there any nursery companies in Australia who might be interested ? Are there any businesses in Vietnam that would be willing to invest something.
Finally, I would I like to end by inviting any people who are interested or know who might be in such a project to please contact me for further discussions. Our goal at the Southeast Asian Impacts Centre is to support capacity-building activities in the region, and to the end I am keen to help my Vietnamese colleagues find the right partners interested in the long-term planning of plantation development Vietnam.
Thank You.
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