12 Aug 2007

China & the 123 Agreement: An Update
Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, India
Supplied note: "The latest paper of the Institute For Topical Studies, A-2/3, Bharathi Dasan Colony, K.K.Nagar, Chennai---600078, India, on the above subject is now available at the web site of the South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG), New Delhi, at [the URL below] - br."
Extract: "27. When the issue of the NSG [Nuclear Suppliers Group - ed.] relaxing or lifting its present restrictions on India comes up before it formally in the wake of the 123 agreement [The civil nuclear deal of 1 Aug 2007 between India and the US, see http://ia.rediff.com/news/2007/aug/03ndeal3.htm - ed.], three Scenarios are possible: * SCENARIO I: China does not agree to it. This Scenario is unlikely as this could affect the forward momentum in Indo-Chinese relations. * SCENARIO II: China agrees to it without any conditions in the interest of its good relations with India without worrying about its impact on its relations with Pakistan. It seems to be an over-optimistic scenario for the present. * SCENARIO III: China agrees to it subject to the condition that there is a similar relaxation of the NSG guidelines in the case of Pakistan so that it could sell Chashmas III and IV to Pakistan.This Scenario was posed to Shri Pranab Mukherjee by Shri Karan Thapar. His answers were evasive, but one got the impression that India would not be unduly concerned over this so long as the restrictions on its international purchases are lifted. 28. In the eventuality of Scenario III materialising, there could be a delay in the implementation of the 123 agreement due to the following reasons: * The US might insist that before clearing the supply of Chashma III and IV to Pakistan, China and Pakistan should sign a formal agreement similar to the Indo-US deal under which Pakistan would separate its military and civilian infrastructure and sign a Pakistan-centric safeguards agreement with the IAEA, which would apply to its civilian infrastructure. * There could be Congressional opposition to the US agreeing to this till the Pakistan Government makes A.Q.Khan available for interrogation by IAEA experts." - b.raman
[The author, Mr B. Raman, is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India. - ed. ]
URL http://www.saag.org/papers23/paper2273.html
Internet Archive (www.archive.org) - the paper was not archived at the time of this abstract. However, in a few weeks time it will be available at web.archive.org/web/* /www.saag.org - ed.
Link reported by: B. Raman (corde--at--vsnl.com)
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