06 Oct 2006

China: Is Economic Growth Out of Control?
Real Instituto Elcano de Estudios Internacionales y Estrategicos/ Elcano Royal Institute, Madrid, Spain
Self-description: "China: Is Economic Growth Out Of Control? (ARI) ARI 97/2006 (Translated from Spanish) -- Analisis Pablo Bustelo (4/10/2006 )"
Contents: * Theme; * Summary; * Analysis (What do the Economic Figures and Policy Measures Indicate? Partial Overheating: Causes and Responses, The Need for Further Measures, The Risks); * Conclusions.
Extract: "Summary: This analysis begins by pointing out that the figures for the first half of 2006 indicate that the Chinese economy is presenting real overheating, although limited to certain sectors, in view of which policy-makers have taken a series of restrictive actions, which could be a sign of frustration and concern in the government. Secondly, the analysis argues that further cooling measures are called for, especially to slow export growth and cut the huge rate of savings, but that the yuan is unlikely to appreciate substantially. Thirdly, the paper asserts that, in the absence of any measures such as these, and especially if there is significant external turmoil, the risk of a hard landing could increase considerably. - pablo bustelo."
Pablo Bustelo is a Senior Analyst (Asia-Pacific region) at the Elcano Royal Institute and professor of Applied Economics at the Complutense University of Madrid - ed.
URL http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/analisis/1053.asp
Internet Archive (www.archive.org) - the site was not archived at the time of this abstract.
Link reported by: Pablo Bustelo (bustelop--at--ccee.ucm.es)
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