26 Jan 2004

Indonesia Backgrounder: A Guide to the 2004 Elections
The International Crisis Group (ICG), Brussels, Belgium
Self-description: "Indonesia Backgrounder: A Guide to the 2004 Elections Asia Report No. 71, 18 December 2003
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Indonesia faces at least two and probably three national elections in 2004, including a presidential vote, but they are unlikely to bring fundamental change. Citizens are increasingly disillusioned with the half-decade of democracy and 'money politics' they have experienced since the collapse of Soeharto's authoritarian New Order.
The first election, on 5 April 2004, will fill almost 16,000 seats in legislatures at the national, provincial and district levels. The second, on 5 July 2004, will be its first direct presidential vote ever. If, as is almost certain, no candidate meets the criteria for election in the first round, a run-off between the top two vote-getters will take place on 20 September. The process needs to be completed before President Megawati Soekarnoputri's term expires on 20 October.
Public disillusionment with the performance of democratic government since the first post-authoritarian election in 1999 has been spreading rapidly. [...] Six months ahead of the first round of the presidential election, four possible scenarios suggest themselves. [...] Whatever the result of the presidential election, the next government will be based on a coalition of rival parties. In the absence of a strong leader capable of imposing cohesion on such a government, its performance will be hamstrung by many of the problems that hampered the previous three.
Jakarta/Brussels, 18 December 2003."
[The backgrounder is published as a PDF file in A4 format. It is released by The International Crisis Group (ICG), an independent, non-profit, multinational organisation, with over 90 staff members on five continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.- ed.]
URL http://www.crisisweb.org/home/index.cfm?id=2425&l=1
Internet Archive (www.archive.org) [the site was not archived at the time of this abstract]
Link reported by: Christine Susanna Tjhin (xtine@csis.or.id), forwarded by H-SEAsia@h-net.msu.edu
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